Ukraine war impacts Polish economy badly

The Russia-Ukraine war will negatively impact businesses in Poland. In October 2024, 57 percent of companies in the manufacturing sector stated that the war in Ukraine had a minor negative effect on business activity. War in Ukraine threatened stability for 5.1 percent of companies in the transportation and storage sector.

In 2023, more than 90 percent of foreign investors in Poland said that energy and raw material costs had short-term economic consequences resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The economy has slowed down, but GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2024 The Polish economy is at the bottom of the slowdown and inflation has peaked already. The Polish Economic Institute forecasts that GDP will grow by around 0.8% in 2023 and by 2.2% in 2024. Despite the clear slowdown, the situation on the labour market remains stable. These are the conclusions of the Polish Economic Institute’s “PEI Economic Review: Spring 2023”. The worst is behind us. We are still witnessing an economic slowdown, but the worst is behind us. Admittedly, GDP growth will slow to 0.8% in 2023, compared to 4.9% in 2022. Q1 will probably be the weakest quarter, with the economy contracting by around 0.5%.

However, subsequent months will bring a slight recovery, with growth of 0.5% and 1.0% respectively, mainly due to public spending and corporate investment.

However, it will still be more than three times higher than the GDP growth rate. In H1, we expect moderate results — the slowing of mortgage sales will result in poor outlays on the housing market.

Foreign Media

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